TNA's Debuts on AMC this week. Why AEW should and shouldn't be worried.
Ratings predictions and future outlook for #2 and #3
If you are a wrestling fan, I’m sure you are well aware that TNA is finally coming back to cable tv this week (to an actual channel that people have) and to streaming services on the AMC+ app. This is something I predicted to happen back in May 2025 on X.
This is huge for TNA and for wrestling fans. There are now 3 major wrestling promotions on huge networks. Accessibility is key to driving growth for your brand. If any company understands this, it is TNA who have been promoting themselves for the longest time. WWE has USA & Netflix promoting them weekly, AEW has TBS, TNT & HBO MAX while TNA has had that one social media staff member who points you to uploads of old matches of current popular wrestlers in other companies whenever something of significance happens. Shout out to that guy or girl. You are always on it.
TNA knows this is their moment. They called in a huge favor from WWE and got “The Phenomenal” AJ Styles to appear. This is his second appearance within 179 days for AJ with the brand, his last being at TNA Slammiversary in 2025. That appearance was his first in nearly 14 years for the promotion. A promotion that offered him a new contract in 2014 for 60% less than what he was already making which ultimately led to his departure where he became an even bigger name. That big name status and history is being used as nostalgia fuel to drive eyes to the product in 2026. AJ has said that 2026 will be the year he retires from professional wrestling so the proverbial carrot on a stick is out there for wrestling fans if he will have one more match in the company that he built his brand on.
AJ Style’s appearance will gain the attention of WWE, TNA & AEW fans. Some AEW fans who refuse to watch the WWE product but love AJ Styles will tune in to see him on non-WWE branded programming. Lapsed TNA fans who gave up on the product will tune in and a portion of the WWE fans will tune in due to the WWE partnership with TNA, while sticking it to AEW. The dozens of tribalists on X are going to be there on Thursday night! How will this translate into actual numbers for the rating? We will get to that a bit later.
Two other major stars are also featured on the first AMC show. Matt & Jeff Hardy. They have been heavily featured on TNA programming since their return to the brand. The IWC (Internet Wrestling Community for my non-marks reading this) have painted The Hardy Boyz as washed up, old and irrelevant in 2025 & 2026. The same has happened to Chris Jericho in recent years but the brand recognition of these wrestlers should be undeniable by anyone with eyes. AMC cited that the Hardy Boyz were wrestlers the network wanted. These guys innovated back in the Attitude Era, transformed themselves into singles stars in the 2000s, reinvented themselves in TNA with the broken gimmicks and continue to be comfort food for nostalgic wrestling fans who are not consumed by work rate or IWC expectations. Sometimes you just want an older band to come out and play the hits. Matt & Jeff do that. Of course there have been missteps in recent years, especially during Jeff’s last WWE & AEW run but The Hardy Boyz have found their rhythm as legendary acts.
The AMC+ page features all former WWE wrestlers including Ash by Elegance (formerly Dana Brooke) who retired abruptly in 2025. TNA is leaning hard on past stars that have had that WWE exposure. That nostalgia push has burned TNA in the past but also benefited them. Sting, Kurt Angle and others had their careers revived in TNA before going to WWE. That is where TNA will have trouble keeping up in the ratings. Their newer stars like Leon Slater are being groomed to become WWE Superstars. Leon was in a match on John Cena’s final show. A TNA wrestler featured on WWE’s biggest retirement match ever, unheard of. TNA President Carlos Silva has already stated he wants to help TNA stars move to WWE if that is what the wrestlers want. We have seen that already with Jordynne Grace & Joe Hendry. The ultimate goal should be to build stars and retain them with your brand. It looks like there may be an exit strategy to WWE not just for the wrestlers, but also the promotion itself.
That leads us to the TNA World Championship match between Frankie Kazarian & Mike Santana. Kazarian being the current champ, someone who has a long history with TNA, a brief 6-month stunt in WWE and an AEW original who chose to leave the company and return to TNA. Santana, another AEW original who has history in TNA and won the title after an emotional journey. The issue with that journey, is that Santana won the title at Bound for Glory, which was too late. If TNA had pulled the trigger earlier at Slammiversary in New York, Santana’s home state, the impact of that win would have been much bigger. TNA decided to wait and crown him in Massachusetts, only to go dark with no new TV and then immediately take the title off of him when they were live again. Afterwards, Carlos Silva attempted to play the dirt sheets with reports that Santana wasn’t responding to calls. An angle that is scary because it harkens back to one of the worst moments in wrestling featuring a former Royal Rumble winner who can’t be named. The majority of the sheets did not take the bait and TNA once again had egg on their face.
This brings us to 1/15. Where will they land and how will it impact the actual #2 company AEW? I’m predicting that TNA does a good number for themselves with at least 430k viewers between traditional cable and the AMC+ app. It challenges AEW but doesn’t beat Dynamite numbers. The problem for AEW is when you have another wrestling company doing bigger numbers than one of your shows. It creates the perception that someone is bigger than you which is a narrative that AEW does not need right now. Collision has had a very rocky history. The creation of Collision was always tainted as it was viewed as a way to keep CM Punk happy and away from The Elite after the infamous All Out brawl. Collision doesn’t run consistently, doesn’t feature as many huge names as Dynamite and overall is booked for the sickos. The problems with Collision are long enough to warrant its own article which I will eventually write but what will happen with this additional competition from TNA?
TNA is going to TNA. I’m excited for them to be on a larger platform, but they do not currently have an identity like they did in the past. There will be a significant drop off in viewers in the 2nd week after the casuals get their fix. A similar issue happened with WWE after their debut on Netflix. WWE is large enough to be able to absorb those lost views, but TNA isn’t. They will most likely begin to settle in the 200k range and below by the end of the year. The WWE partnership will not last forever, we may start to see some additional cracks as the networks begin to not play nice with roster sharing, TNA needing to book based on their own plans rather than what WWE wants to do with them and stars leaving the brand.
TNA will be fine. They will be one of the strongest brands on the channel and will help drive subs to AMC+. The Walking Dead well has pretty much dried up. TNA is cheap and brings in new viewers and advertisers for AMC. While they do not have the star power and roster offerings of WWE or AEW, they still have a lot of exciting wrestlers to catch such as Mustafa Ali, Leon Slater, BDE and Léi Yǐng Lee. They will continue to operate unless they choose to sell themselves to WWE. They will see better gates and higher PPV numbers but grasping the #2 spot isn’t in the cards. If you follow the actions by the company and not what some of their wrestlers are saying, you will realize that was never the plan.
I’m going to be watching live on 1/15 and cheering on everyone involved as this is a monumental moment in their history. Will you?